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Prediction for CME (2026-07-10T15:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-10T15:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47501/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the SW in STEREO A COR2, GOES CCOR-1, and SOHO LASCO C2/C3 after a downlink gap backfilled in. The source is AR 14485 and a C6.0 flare (S16W47) peaking at 2026-07-10T14:59Z. Also observed well in SDO AIA 171/193 as field line movement, pockets of dimming in the vicinity (not a central area), and a minor EUV wave. Arrival signature: Characterized by an increase in B_total from 4nT to 5nT, reaching periods of 9nT at 2026-07-13T15:51Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 412 km/s to 430 km/s, an increase in density, and a small increase in temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-13T14:39Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-13T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 700
Longitude (deg): 17W
Latitude (deg): 2N
Half-angular width (deg): 40

Notes: Second of two CMEs deemed most likely to arrive, partial halo.
Space weather advisor: Duty

Lead Time: 43.28 hour(s)
Difference: -3.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-07-11T19:22Z

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